March Madness 2019: Because of heavy favorites, odds for NCAA Tournament sleeper picks low

first_imgMORE FROM TEAMRANKINGS: NCAA Tournament Prediction ToolEditor’s Note: This analysis is from TeamRankings.com, which provides data-driven NCAA bracket picks and tools. Last year, 63 percent of TeamRankings subscribers reported winning a prize in a bracket pool.March Madness 2019: NCAA Tournament bracket pool tips, adviceOften, taking a value-driven approach to your bracket means identifying a No. 3, 4, or 5 seed that is being hugely underrated by the public but still has a solid shot to make the Final Four or beyond. Picking that type of team to make a deep run is usually pretty solid advice (especially for bigger pools) — but not this year.Successful value picking strategy depends heavily on the specific characteristics of each year’s bracket, and in short, 2019 looks like a terrible year for sleeper picks.Want proof? As of Monday afternoon, here are the eight teams with the best futures odds to win this year’s NCAA tournament, according to one of the most respected offshore sports books:No. 1 DukeNo. 1 GonzagaNo. 1 VirginiaNo. 1 UNCNo. 2 Michigan StateNo. 2 MichiganNo. 2 TennesseeNo. 2 KentuckyThat almost never happens.MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Four overrated Sweet 16 picksMarch Madness 2019: Are there any good “sleeper” picks?Ultimately, if you get too cute with your bracket picks this year, you’ll be taking some huge risks. The chance that a non-No. 1 or 2 seed wins it all is much lower this year than in many past years. Consider these facts:This year, according to our bracket projections, the best chance for a No. 3 seed or worse to win the NCAA championship is No. 3 Texas Tech — but its odds are just 2.4 percent. Last year, No. 3 Michigan State had 5.9-percent title odds, more than twice as good. In 2014, No. 4 Louisville had a 10.9-percent title odds, over four times as good.Based on our pre-tournament projections since 2011, this is only the third season in which no team seeded No. 3 or worse has had at least a three-percent chance to win the title.According to our simulations, there’s a whopping 68-percent chance that a No. 1 seed wins the 2019 NCAA tournament this year. That’s the single highest percentage chance of that outcome occurring in the past nine years. Last year, in comparison, those odds were only 42 percent, and No. 1 Villanova ending up doing it.You get the point. So, what are the implications for a winning bracket strategy?In short, the successful application of value picking to this year’s bracket will likely involve figuring out which of the top-seeded teams are the right ones to “bet on” in your bracket. There are eight solid teams on the top two seed lines, including some value picks among that bunch. Smart NCAA Tournament pickers know that choosing favorites to win every game isn’t necessarily the best way to win your March Madness bracket pool. To maximize your edge, you need to identify value and/or upset picks — good teams that are flying under the radar of the general public (i.e. your opponents).Picking unpopular teams gives you an extra boost in your pool standings when those picks win. Especially if you’re in a bigger pool competing against dozens or hundreds of brackets, “fading the public” in the right spots is what often separates a decent bracket from a prize-winning bracket. The sleeper teams this year just look too damn risky, when, according to the betting markets, a team like Duke has more than 10 times the odds to win than any No. 3 seed or worse. (Duke’s also an extremely popular pick this year, though, which is a negative.)We’ve crunched all the numbers to figure out this year’s best picks for small pools, large pools, and all types of different scoring systems. If you’re interested in seeing the bracket that will give you the best chance to win your pool, please check our product: NCAA Bracket Picks from TeamRankings.Since 2017, TeamRankings subscribers have reporting winning over $1.1 million in bracket pool prizes.last_img read more

Second round play washed out in English championship

first_img11 May 2016 Second round play washed out in English championship The second round of the English senior women’s championship at Ross-on-Wye Golf Club was washed out today by torrential rain.Play was abandoned when greens and fairways flooded on the course, which was already soaked from yesterday’s heavy rain.Qualifying for the matchplay stage of the championship has been decided on the first round scores, with the leading 16 players going forward. A tie for 16th place was decided on card countback.The qualifiers, who include defending champion Helen Lowe, are: Katherine Russell (Royal Ashdown Forest), Jackie Foster (Bishops Stortford), Karen Jobling (Richmond, Yorks), Cath Rawthore (Sale), Helen Lowe (Scraptoft), Helen Braddock (Bolton Old Links), Sue Dye (Delamere Forest), Debbie Warren (Kings Norton), Jo  Shorrocks (Bigbury), Caroline Berry (Bromborough), Aileen Greenfield (Pyecombe), Angela Jones (Chart Hills), Felicity Christine (Woking), Carol Houghton (The Nottinghamshire), Jenny Deeley (La Moye, Jersey), Julie Wheeldon (Wakefield).The matchplay will take place over the next two days with the final played on Friday afternoon. Spectators are welcome.Players placed 17th to 64th qualify for the second flight stroke play competition which will also be played tomorrow and on Friday.England Golf Tournament Director Scott Allison said: “Everyone is very disappointed that the weather made it impossible to play the second qualifying round.“We are very grateful to the green staff for their fantastic work, which meant we could play the first round, but in the end the heavy rain beat us. The forecast for the next couple of days is much better and we look forward to good golf in kinder conditions.”First round matchplay draw, play starts at 8am tomorrow: Russell v Wheeldon; Warren v Shorrocks; Rawthore v Christine; Lowe v Jones; Foster v Deeley; Dye v Berry; Jobling v Houghton; Braddock v Greenfield.Click here for full scores and tournament information.Image © Leaderboard Photographylast_img read more