Kenley Jansen Is The Model Of A Modern Reliever

Kevin ShackelfordCIN120-0.6 Aaron BummerCHW456-1.2 PITCHER▲▼TEAM▲▼GOOSE EGGS▲▼BROKEN EGGS▲▼MEHS▲▼GWAR▲▼ Hector NerisPHI3174+1.9 After a year of searching, we didn’t our find our new Goose Gossage. But we did get a glimpse of what one might look like in baseball’s just-concluded postseason.This spring, we introduced a new pitching statistic called the goose egg — named in honor of Gossage, the Hall-of-Fame reliever, who had a record 82 goose eggs in 1975. Essentially, a pitcher gets a goose egg for every clutch, scoreless relief inning (see the original article for a more formal definition). Goose eggs have a substantially better correlation with relievers’ win probability added than saves do, especially if paired with their companion statistic, the broken egg.This year’s major leader in goose eggs was the Milwaukee Brewers’ Corey Knebel, who finished with 47 of them. The American League leader was the Seattle Mariners’ Edwin Diaz, who had 40. You can find a complete rundown of this year’s final goose stats in the table below. (A “broken egg” is essentially the blown save of goose stats, and a “meh” is any situation which doesn’t result in either a goose egg or a broken egg.) Nick WittgrenMIA611+0.5 Tyler AndersonCOL100+0.2 Alex ColomeTB3866+3.5 John BrebbiaSTL313+0.1 Adam KolarekTB021-0.7 SOURCE: SEAMHEADS.COM Casey LawrenceSEA/TOR020-0.7 Stu Miller19657973+7.5 Rubby De La RosaARI011-0.4 Chase WhitleyTB641-0.6 Justin NicolinoMIA002+0.0 Austin PruittTB420-0.1 Josh FieldsLAD652-1.0 Brad BrachBAL3182+1.9 Fernando RodneyARI3345+3.5 However, from an efficiency standpoint, the best season came not from Knebel or Diaz but from the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen, who finished with a perfect record of 44 goose eggs and no broken eggs. That’s the most-ever goose eggs without a broken egg. The Dodgers used Jansen smartly and lined up his 68.1 innings pitched to coincide with mostly high-leverage situations. He made 15 multi-inning appearances, entered with runners on base 12 times, and often pitched in tied games — all things that closers weren’t doing much of a few years ago. And Jansen generated 6.3 goose wins above replacement (GWAR) in the regular season, the 7th-highest total of all-time. Jacob TurnerWAS520-0.0 Bryan ShawCLE2985+1.8 David PhelpsMIA/SEA1694-1.1 Joakim SoriaKC2982+1.6 Robbie RossBOS100+0.2 Mike PelfreyCHW001+0.0 Nick GoodyCLE012-0.4 Luis GarciaPHI1664+0.1 Arodys VizcainoATL2882+1.1 Domingo GermanNYY020-0.7 Matt AlbersWAS1524+1.4 Chasen BradfordNYM301+0.4 Victor AranoPHI210-0.1 Hunter StricklandSF2661+1.5 Nick VincentSEA2856+2.4 Blaine HardyDET131-1.0 Chris DevenskiHOU26106+0.1 Jared HughesMIL1042-0.0 Tyler ClippardCHW/HOU10117-2.5 Brad PeacockHOU101+0.1 Jerry BlevinsNYM18513+0.7 Kevin SiegristPHI/STL813+0.8 Neftali FelizKC/MIL1060-0.7 Erik GoeddelNYM121-0.6 Kevin QuackenbushSD120-0.6 Pedro StropCHC1935+1.6 Blake ParkerLAA2352+1.6 Paul SewaldNYM1283-1.3 Zach DukeSTL112-0.2 J. C. RamirezLAA020-0.7 Mike MorinLAA101+0.2 Brad GoldbergCHW001+0.0 Juan NicasioPHI/PIT2288+0.2 Jhan MarinezMIL/PIT320-0.3 Aroldis ChapmanNYY1943+1.5 Josh HaderMIL1245+0.3 Mariano Rivera19965462+6.6 Joe SmithCLE/TOR1921+2.2 Parker BridwellLAA001+0.0 Rafael MonteroNYM131-1.0 Luke JacksonATL100+0.1 Brandon MaurerKC/SD19100-1.0 Jim JohnsonATL1993-0.6 Zach BrittonBAL1820+2.1 Caleb SmithNYY110-0.2 Zach McAllisterCLE121-0.6 Jonathan HolderNYY611+0.6 Matt CainSF100+0.1 Roberto OsunaTOR31101+1.1 Rob ScahillMIL110-0.2 Michael FelizHOU110-0.2 AJ RamosMIA/NYM2244+1.6 Kenyan MiddletonLAA1021+0.8 Oliver DrakeMIL441-0.9 Tommy KahnleCHW/NYY1692-0.9 Carlos EstevezCOL300+0.5 Troy Percival19964731+6.5 Eric O’FlahertyATL211-0.1 Jimmie SherfyARI100+0.2 Ariel HernandezCIN001+0.0 Ben TaylorBOS101+0.2 Sam FreemanATL1226+1.0 Jordan LylesCOL210-0.0 Lucas HarrellTOR001+0.0 Ronald HerreraNYY010-0.4 Chase De JongSEA010-0.4 Sam TuivailalaSTL441-0.9 Wily PeraltaMIL120-0.6 Archie BradleyARI3148+3.2 Anthony SwarzakCHW/MIL2444+2.1 Pedro BaezLAD1478-0.6 Ryan MadsonOAK/WAS2441+2.1 James PazosSEA1345+0.5 Simon CastroOAK221-0.4 Ross StriplingLAD1091-2.0 Justin HaleyMIN110-0.2 Miguel CastroBAL912+1.0 Seung-hwan OhSTL2256+1.3 Travis WoodKC331-0.6 Brad ZieglerMIA1233+0.6 Shane GreeneDET2045+1.6 Hector SantiagoMIN010-0.4 Jose AlvarezLAA555-1.1 Jake BarrettARI203+0.3 Kenley JansenLAD4401+6.3 Jose LeclercTEX733+0.0 Alex WoodLAD301+0.4 Tyler GlasnowPIT010-0.4 Jose TorresSD552-1.2 Brooks PoundersLAA100+0.2 Chad BellDET001+0.0 Reymin GuduanHOU001+0.0 Cory GearrinSF1232+0.6 David HernandezARI/LAA1515+1.9 Juan MinayaCHW1013+1.1 Cam BedrosianLAA1354+0.1 Adam ConleyMIA010-0.4 Craig StammenSD1023+0.7 Gabriel MoyaMIN100+0.2 Chris O’GradyMIA101+0.1 Brad HandSD3866+3.2 Austin Bibens-DirkxTEX001+0.0 Luis SantosTOR210-0.1 Alex ClaudioTEX2648+2.6 Sam DysonSF/TEX27112-0.1 Jean MachiSEA101+0.2 Tyler PillNYM010-0.4 Adam MorganPHI910+0.9 Daniel StumpfDET245-1.2 Joe MusgroveHOU800+1.2 Dominic LeoneTOR946-0.1 Alan BusenitzMIN302+0.5 Ricardo PintoPHI121-0.6 Brian EllingtonMIA530-0.4 Amir GarrettCIN110-0.2 Edubray RamosPHI9111-2.8 Sam MollOAK011-0.4 Derek LawSF1131+0.5 Jandel GustaveHOU010-0.4 Danny FarquharCHW/TB1442+0.6 Brock StewartLAD201+0.3 Hoby MilnerPHI115-0.2 Joe BiaginiTOR932+0.3 Tim MayzaTOR001+0.0 Yovani GallardoSEA100+0.2 Christian BergmanSEA010-0.4 Jimmy YacabonisBAL300+0.5 Joe JimenezDET020-0.7 Drew VerHagenDET312+0.1 Hansel RoblesNYM952-0.6 Randall DelgadoARI500+0.8 Dan OteroCLE200+0.3 Brandon WorkmanBOS722+0.4 Kyle CrickSF100+0.1 Vidal NunoBAL010-0.4 Jason MotteATL212-0.1 Corey Knebel gets the golden eggFinal goose egg stats for 2017 Tony BarnetteTEX731+0.0 Austin BriceCIN400+0.6 Jason GrilliTEX/TOR443-0.8 Logan VerrettBAL400+0.6 Ian KrolATL623+0.1 Liam HendriksOAK1261-0.4 Doug Corbett198068103+6.3 Ryan DullOAK634-0.2 Tony CingraniCIN/LAD724+0.3 Luke GregersonHOU1062-0.8 Ricardo RodriguezTEX221-0.4 Chris RusinCOL1344+0.6 Matt StrahmKC231-0.8 Blake TreinenOAK/WAS22103-0.4 Luis AvilanLAD644-0.7 Andrew MillerCLE3353+3.5 Drew StorenCIN423-0.2 Erasmo RamirezTB712+0.7 Felix PenaCHC100+0.1 Keone KelaTEX1032+0.5 Jarlin GarciaMIA517+0.3 Blaine BoyerBOS611+0.6 Carlos TorresMIL643-0.6 Trevor RosenthalSTL2581+0.6 Alex WilsonDET1377-0.6 Aaron LoupTOR5312-0.3 Cody AllenCLE2985+1.8 Shae SimmonsSEA020-0.7 Josh OsichSF426-0.2 Andrew ChafinARI587-2.2 Michael LorenzenCIN2672+1.2 Ernesto FrieriTEX010-0.4 James HoytHOU110-0.2 Ryne StanekTB013-0.4 Nate JonesCHW410+0.2 Brian DuensingCHC631-0.3 Tyler OlsonCLE204+0.3 Raisel IglesiasCIN3122+3.8 Doug FisterBOS420-0.1 Scott ObergCOL725+0.4 Jeff BeliveauTOR111-0.2 Matt BarnesBOS1884-0.0 Koda GloverWAS822+0.4 Steven OkertSF7412-0.5 Mike BolsingerTOR310+0.1 Bruce RondonDET430-0.5 Jeurys FamiliaNYM822+0.4 Brent SuterMIL001+0.0 Adam WarrenNYY1041+0.1 Albert SuarezSF430-0.6 John AxfordOAK120-0.6 Greg HollandCOL2762+2.1 Kenley Jansen20174401+6.3 Josh CollmenterATL020-0.7 Xavier CedenoTB013-0.4 Tony WatsonLAD/PIT2396-0.0 Francisco LirianoHOU221-0.4 Tom WilhelmsenARI112-0.2 Scott AlexanderKC844-0.2 Bryan MorrisSF300+0.4 Kyle RyanDET210-0.1 Chris YoungKC100+0.2 Josh EdginNYM525-0.0 Ken GilesHOU2453+1.7 Phil MatonSD732-0.1 Bud NorrisLAA1871+0.1 Wade LeBlancPIT232-0.8 Joely RodriguezPHI524-0.0 Hector RondonCHC1132+0.4 Trevor HildenbergerMIN933+0.3 Rex BrothersATL331-0.7 Koji UeharaCHC1563-0.1 Greg InfanteCHW327-0.3 Dustin McGowanMIA412+0.2 Carson SmithBOS200+0.3 Addison ReedBOS/NYM3567+3.0 Kelvin HerreraKC2773+1.6 Jayson AquinoBAL010-0.4 Carlos RamirezTOR700+1.1 Ryan GartonSEA/TB031-1.1 Akeel MorrisATL001+0.0 T. J. McFarlandARI622+0.2 Daniel CoulombeOAK456-1.3 Trevor CahillKC200+0.3 Richard BleierBAL422-0.1 Kyle McGrathSD100+0.1 Hector VelazquezBOS500+0.8 Zach PutnamCHW200+0.3 Daniel HudsonPIT864-1.1 Chris HatcherLAD/OAK963-0.9 Jorge De La RosaARI1251-0.0 Casey FienPHI/SEA320-0.3 Ryan SherriffSTL221-0.5 Danny BarnesTOR893-2.1 Brad BoxbergerTB443-0.9 Sammy SolisWAS422-0.2 Jake PetrickaCHW223-0.4 Eduardo ParedesLAA210-0.1 Blake WoodCIN432-0.5 Odrisamer DespaigneMIA100+0.1 Boone LoganCLE104+0.2 Gabriel YnoaBAL001+0.0 Matt GraceWAS212-0.1 Rich Gossage197582118+6.7 Robert GsellmanNYM210-0.1 George KontosPIT/SF1283-1.3 Sparky Lyle197766813+6.1 Jackson StephensCIN100+0.1 Vance WorleyMIA010-0.4 Sean DoolittleOAK/WAS2437+2.4 Robert StephensonCIN220-0.5 Junichi TazawaMIA1470-0.6 Jacob RhameNYM210-0.1 Tom KoehlerTOR312+0.1 Matthew BowmanSTL1977+0.1 Jeremy JeffressMIL/TEX251-1.5 Tommy HunterTB3061+2.3 Jesse ChavezLAA121-0.6 Dan WinklerATL111-0.2 Ty BlachSF201+0.3 David PriceBOS101+0.2 Wandy PeraltaCIN1544+0.7 Brandon MorrowLAD1242+0.2 Mike ClevingerCLE010-0.4 Giovanny GallegosNYY010-0.4 Buddy BoshersMIN020-0.7 Dillon GeeMIN100+0.2 Willie Hernandez19846577+6.4 Chad GreenNYY322-0.3 Francis MartesHOU412+0.2 Carl EdwardsCHC2283+0.1 Matt BelisleMIN2263+1.1 Frankie MontasOAK110-0.2 Shawn KelleyWAS621+0.1 Jamie CallahanNYM201+0.3 Tyler DuffeyMIN1143+0.2 A. J. ColeWAS100+0.1 Josh SmokerNYM823+0.4 Ron Perranoski196979139+6.6 Tanner ScheppersTEX101+0.2 Troy ScribnerLAA001+0.0 Jeanmar GomezPHI721+0.3 Dillon MaplesCHC100+0.1 Jose RamirezATL2066+0.7 Ryan BuchterKC/SD1564-0.1 Joe BlantonWAS430-0.5 Oliver PerezWAS615+0.5 Jake JunisKC200+0.3 Tyler WilsonBAL111-0.2 Robby ScottBOS5212+0.1 Jose AlvaradoTB943-0.1 Mychal GivensBAL1834+1.7 Santiago CasillaOAK1783-0.4 Darren O’DayBAL1332+0.9 Yusmeiro PetitLAA2342+2.0 Marc RzepczynskiSEA11412+0.2 Enny RomeroWAS1446+0.5 Ted Abernathy196751314+6.2 Evan ScribnerSEA020-0.7 A.J. MinterATL110-0.2 Tyler ChatwoodCOL110-0.2 Donnie HartBAL423-0.1 Grant DaytonLAD112-0.2 Javy GuerraMIA112-0.2 Neil RamirezNYM012-0.4 J. P. HowellTOR010-0.4 Al AlburquerqueCHW/KC121-0.6 Mark MelanconSF1550+0.3 Chris RowleyTOR310+0.1 Diego MorenoTB010-0.4 Jen-Ho TsengCHC300+0.4 Tony ZychSEA853-0.6 Taylor RogersMIN1876+0.2 Craig KimbrelBOS3140+3.5 Dellin BetancesNYY2482+0.9 Jacob BarnesMIL2694+0.5 Kirby YatesLAA/SD1462-0.2 Tony SippHOU111-0.2 Andrew RomineDET001+0.0 Justin WilsonCHC/DET2463+1.4 Dovydas NeverauskasPIT530-0.4 Pat NeshekCOL/PHI2848+2.8 Warwick SaupoldDET113-0.2 Fernando AbadBOS511+0.4 Corey KnebelMIL4782+3.9 Will HarrisHOU1830+1.5 Joaquin BenoitPHI/PIT18110-1.5 Miguel DiazSD010-0.4 Mike MinorKC2874+1.8 Bryan MitchellNYY010-0.4 Matt BushTEX1763+0.5 Kevin McCarthyKC100+0.2 A. J. SchugelPIT201+0.3 Mike DunnCOL1503+2.4 Kenley Jansen’s season was Goose-toricHighest single-season goose wins above replacement (GWAR) Stefan ChrichtonBAL010-0.4 Wade DavisCHC3031+3.2 Mark LeiterPHI010-0.4 Andrew KittredgeTB210-0.1 Dan JenningsCHW/TB259-1.5 Edwin DiazSEA4074+3.4 Sergio RomoLAD/TB630-0.2 Jake DiekmanTEX601+0.9 Craig BreslowCLE/MIN012-0.4 Tyler LyonsSTL1132+0.5 Joe KellyBOS1245+0.5 Heath HembreeBOS1056-0.2 Justin GrimmCHC412+0.2 Kyle BarracloughMIA2261+0.9 Dan AltavillaSEA431-0.5 Brandon KintzlerMIN/WAS3464+2.9 Mike MontgomeryCHC1422+1.3 Buddy BaumannSD311+0.1 Antonio BastardoPIT010-0.4 Johnny BarbatoPIT010-0.4 Drew SteckenriderMIA1111+1.2 Josh RavinLAD110-0.2 Steve CishekSEA/TB1024+0.8 Alec AsherBAL311+0.1 Matt DermodyTOR302+0.5 Jake McGeeCOL1552+0.6 David RobertsonCHW/NYY2862+2.1 Adam OttavinoCOL1373-0.5 Deolis GuerraLAA720+0.3 Asher WojciechowskiCIN200+0.3 Miguel SocolovichSTL101+0.1 Ryan TeperaTOR2531+2.8 Ryan PresslyMIN532-0.3 Fernando SalasLAA/NYM864-1.1 Dan RunzlerPIT001+0.0 Ben HellerNYY101+0.2 Tim AdlemanCIN021-0.7 Brett CecilSTL1543+0.7 Josh SmithOAK210-0.1 Francisco RodriguezDET382-2.5 J. J. HooverARI633-0.2 Chasen ShreveNYY623+0.2 PITCHERYEARGOOSE EGGSBROKEN EGGSMEHSGWAR Felipe RiveroPIT3742+3.9 PITCHER▲▼TEAM▲▼GOOSE EGGS▲▼BROKEN EGGS▲▼MEHS▲▼GWAR▲▼ Jumbo DiazTB653-0.9 Austin MaddoxBOS200+0.3 Chad QuallsCOL210-0.0 Jonathan BroxtonSTL120-0.6 Chris BeckCHW022-0.7 Peter MoylanKC1005+1.6 Dario AlvarezTEX201+0.3 Emilio PaganSEA342-1.0 Sources: Retrosheet, The Baseball GAUGE Jansen’s also the exception that proves the rule, however; it’s hard to provide all that much value when you pitch only 70 innings or so, which is about how much the best relievers pitch nowadays. After Jansen, the next most-valuable season came from Knebel, who finished with 3.9 GWAR — which ranks just 200th among relief pitching seasons all-time.If you want a model for a more Gossage-like usage pattern, you need to look no further than … how Jansen was used in the postseason. Jansen appeared in 13 of the Dodgers’ 15 playoff games and threw 16.2 innings. Extrapolated out to a full, 162-game regular season, that would work out to a Mike Marshall-like total of 180 relief innings.Jansen didn’t keep his perfect streak alive in the playoffs. Instead, he allowed 2 broken eggs to go with 6 goose eggs. He was also used in some situations that we wouldn’t recommend — for instance, to close out an 11-1 lead against the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS. Still, his postseason goose egg pace would extrapolate to 65 goose eggs over a 162-game regular season.What I’m really advocating for is a hybrid between how pitchers like Jansen are currently used in the regular season and the entirely different way that they’re used in the postseason. The extra off-days the playoffs provide help to enable more creative usage patterns that might not be viable in the regular season. And even with those extra rest days, Jansen may have been overused in not-very-clutch situations in the NLCS and NLDS; perhaps as a result, he was not especially sharp in the World Series. At the same time, he went from throwing 4.7 percent of the Dodgers’ regular season innings to 12.3 percent of their postseason innings — almost a threefold increase. Surely there’s a happy median somewhere in between?But congratulations to Jansen and Knebel, and we’ll resume our hunt for goose eggs next year. In the meantime, you can download detailed data on goose eggs and broken eggs for all pitchers since 1930 here.


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